Nassim Nicholas Taleb Libri

Questo libro offre una nuova visione del mondo. La prospettiva che cambierà le nostre idee sulla società e ispirerà le nostre scelte quotidiane. Ci aiuterà a comprendere come il nostro corpo si protegge dalle malattie e le specie viventi si evolvono, come la libertà d'impresa crea prosperità e il genio si trasforma in innovazione. La chiave di tutto è l'antifragilità. Sappiamo che la nostra incapacità di comprendere a fondo i fenomeni umani e naturali ci espone al rischio degli eventi inaspettati. Ma l'incertezza non è solo una fonte di pericoli da cui difendersi: possiamo trarre vantaggio dalla volatilità e dal disordine, persino dagli errori, ed essere quindi antifragili. Medicina, alimentazione, architettura, tecnologia, informazione, politica, economia, gestione dei risparmi: sono solo alcuni dei campi di applicazione pratica in cui Nassim Nicholas Taleb ci accompagna, con l'ironia e la verve polemica che lo hanno reso celebre. Attingendo da uno sconfinato repertorio di episodi storici, fenomeni biologici e naturali, curiose esperienze personali, unendo la logica alla scettica saggezza degli antichi e allo spirito pratico dell'uomo della strada, Taleb è riuscito nel tentativo di creare una guida eclettica, scanzonata e iconoclasta per orientarsi in un mondo imprevedibile e dominato dal caos, il mondo del Cigno nero.

Cosa pensarono gli europei quando, giunti in Australia, videro dei cigni neri dopo aver creduto per secoli, supportati dall'evidenza, che tutti i cigni fossero bianchi? Un singolo evento è sufficiente a invalidare un convincimento frutto di un'esperienza millenaria. Ci ripetono che il futuro è prevedibile e i rischi controllabili, ma la storia non striscia, salta. I cigni neri sono eventi rari, di grandissimo impatto e prevedibili solo a posteriori, come l'invenzione della ruota, l'11 settembre, il crollo di Wall Street e il successo di Google. Sono all'origine di quasi ogni cosa, e spesso sono causati ed esasperati proprio dal loro essere imprevisti. Se il rischio di un attentato con voli di linea fosse stato concepibile il 10 settembre, le Torri Gemelle sarebbero ancora al loro posto. Se i modelli matematici fossero applicabili agli investimenti, non assisteremmo alle crisi degli hedge funds. Questo libro è dedicato ai cigni neri: cosa sono, come affrontarli, in che modo traene beneficio.

Traces the author's experiences as a mathematics wizard, author, inventor, hedge-fund manager, and card-counter who revealed casino-beating strategies, invented the first wearable computer, and launched a Wall Street revolution

This is a book about luck. More specifically, it is a book about how we perceive luck, twist it around and regard it as intention or purpose.

Dynamic Hedging is an essential guide to managing derivatives risk, offering a practical approach for portfolios with nonlinear securities. It presents insights from the perspective of option market makers and arbitrage operators. Authored by an experienced trader with theoretical expertise, it adapts option theory to real-world scenarios, addressing the limitations of traditional mathematical models in capturing market exposure. Nassim Taleb explores both on-model and off-model derivatives risks, discussing critical concepts in accessible language. Key topics include the generalized option, which covers all convex payoff instruments, and trading techniques for exotic options like binary, barrier, multi-asset, and Asian options, while considering the complexities of actual distributions. The book examines market dynamics from a practitioner's viewpoint, addressing liquidity issues, portfolio insurance, volatility surfaces, and the shortcomings of value at risk methods. It introduces new risk detection tools, including higher moment analysis and nonparametric techniques, while emphasizing the path dependence of dynamically hedged options. Filled with practical tools, market anecdotes, and concise risk management rules, it also presents fundamental derivatives mathematics in intuitive terms, making it a valuable resource for practitioners.

A gripping tale of how even experts misread the role of chance - from the stock market to doctors' surgeries - "Dance With Chance" argues that we all fall foul of the 'The Illusion of Control', meaning that we underestimate the role of luck in our lives. The authors argue that by understanding how uncertainty operates, we can make palpable improvements to our health, wealth, happiness and careers.

Why should we never listen to people who explain rather than do? Why do companies go bust? How is it that we have more slaves today than in Roman times? Why does imposing democracy on other countries never work? The answer- too many people running the world don't have skin in the game. In this provocative book, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows that skin in the game applies to all aspects of our lives. It's about having something to lose and taking a risk. Citizens, lab experimenters, artisans, political activists and hedge fund traders all have skin in the game. Policy wonks, corporate executives, theoreticians, bankers and most journalists don't.

An alternate cover edition can be found here. Un "divertissement", un guizzo anarchico dell'intelligenza. È così che si possono definire queste pagine nelle quali Cipolla abbandona gli austeri panni dello studioso e, giocando sul filo del paradosso e dell'assurdo, costruisce due brevi saggi: il primo, una ilare parodia della storia economica e sociale del Medioevo; il secondo, una sorta di scherzosa teoria generale della stupidità umana.

By the author of the modern classic The Black Swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's view of modern civilization's hubristic side effects--modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery

The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible.Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress". Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=?, and the real world is in between, under of the "laws of the medium numbers" --which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence.A few examples:+ The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naive empiricism", but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods.+ The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical.+ Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics.+ Dimension reduction (principal components) fails.+ Inequality estimators (GINI or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results.+ Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions+ Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions.This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

New York Times bestselling author Nassim Taleb's landmark Incerto series - Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, The Bed of Procrustes - gathered together for the first time, in a beautifully designed box set.

Nassim Taleb's five landmark bestselling books have changed the way millions see the world and think about uncertainty, chance, volatility, and risk. They can be read individually but are also written to complement each other and actually comprise a single work: The Incerto. This boxed set is newly designed and offers readers one of the most significant intellectual projects of our time.

Die "Incerto-Reihe" von Nassim Nicholas Taleb, die die Werke "Der Schwarze Schwan", "Narren des Zufalls", "Antifragilität" und das "Kleine Handbuch für den Umgang mit Unwissen" umfasst, untersucht die Rolle von Glück, Unsicherheit und Risiko in einer komplexen Welt. Daniel Kahneman beschreibt Talebs Einfluss auf seine Weltsicht.

О чем книга О самых невероятных, оригинальных научно-фантастических идеях, которые в будущем, возможно, станут реальностью. О том, как самые разные ученые, оказывается, способны поверить в любые гипотезы и поведать всем нам о своих идеях, связанных с новыми областями эволюционной биологии, генетики, компьютерных наук, нейрофизиологии, психологии и физики... Почему книга достойна прочтения Лучшие умы XXI века предлагают необычное видение возможностей науки и технического прогресса. Книга отвечает на самые разные вопросы, - начиная с того, что же такое сознание человека, и кончая тем, одиноки ли мы во Вселенной, - интересующие не только мировое научное сообщество, но и каждого из нас. Ведь все мы, так или иначе, задаемся вопросами мироздания. Уникальная возможность познакомиться с тем, каким образом ученые сегодня находят путь к истине. Для кого эта книга Для всех, кто чувствует ритм нашего времени - времени научно-технического бума, и кому интересно узнать, во что можно и нужно верить, даже если это пока еще не доказано.

За одно только последнее десятилетие человечество пережило ряд тяжелейших катастроф, потрясений и катаклизмов, не укладывающихся в рамки самых фантастических предсказаний. Пятидесятидвухлетний ливанец, выпускник Сорбонны и нью-йоркский финансовый гуру Нассим Талеб называет такие непрогнозируемые события Черными лебедями. Он убежден: именно они дают толчок как истории в целом, так и существованию каждого отдельного человека. И чтобы преуспеть, надо быть к ним готовыми. Сразу после выхода "Черного лебедя" автор блестяще продемонстрировал свою "не-теорию" на практике: на фоне финансового кризиса компания Талеба заработала (а не потеряла!) для инвесторов полмиллиарда долларов. Но его труд - не учебник по экономике. Это размышления очень незаурядного человека о жизни и о том, как найти в ней свое место. В написанном им позже эссе-постскриптуме "О секретах устойчивости" Талеб дает остроумный отпор тем экономистам-ортодоксам, которые приняли созданное им анти-учение в штыки. Вошедшее в книгу собрание афоризмов Нассима Талеба "Прокрустово ложе" - это блестящая квинтэссенция его оригинальных идей.