Joachim Schleich Libri

In its latest Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) projects that without further action the global average surface t- perature would rise by a further 1. 8–4. 0°C until the end of this century. But even if the rise in temperature could be limited to the lower end of this range, irreversible and possibly catastrophic changes are likely to occur. Consequently, the protection of the earth’s atmosphere requires substantial efforts to reduce CO and other green- 2 house gas emissions – especially in countries with very high per capita emissions. To limit the imminent rise in temperature, in the Kyoto-Protocol, the European Union has committed itself to reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases by 8% up to 2008–2012 compared to 1990 levels. Within the EU burden sharing agr- ment, some countries have to achieve even higher emissions reductions. Germany was assigned a reduction target of 21%. The entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in February 2005 marks a first step towards meting global climate targets, but more ambitious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is needed after 2012, when the Kyoto targets expire. Under German presidency, the EU has committed itself to unilaterally reduce its greenhouse gas emissions until 2020 by 20%. In case a Post- Kyoto agreement can be reached, the EU reduction target would be 30% (CEU, 2007).

What influence do innovations have on CO2-emissions? And how can policy influence this relationship? Macroeconomic models typically used to address those questions do not give satisfactory answers because they assume that technological progress falls like manna from heaven. Under this premise, policy would have no steering role at all. In this book we develop a new approach which allows technological progress to be modelled as process-related and policy-induced. The choice between limitational production technologies (technological paradigms) is explicitly modelled and is implemented in the macro-econometric model PANTA RHEI for the German steel, paper and cement industries. Our integrated bottom-up / top-down modelling approach allows for a technology-specific analysis of policy interventions and empirically highlights the policy relevance of long diffusion times for new technologies in energy-intensive sectors. Several simulations are conducted for tax, R& D and recycling policies to assess their implications for GDP, employment, emissions and structural change. For example, simulation results for a revenue neutral CO2-tax show that the conventional modelling approach overestimates the costs of climate policy, that effects on GDP are rather small and - because tax revenue is used to lower labour costs - that employment increases significantly.

Das vorliegende Buch liefert empirisch fundierte Erkenntnisse über die Innovationswirkungen des EU-Emissionshandels sowie des Mechanismus' zur umweltverträglichen Entwicklung (CDM) in Deutschland. Die Ergebnisse basieren auf mehr als 80 Experteninterviews sowie einer deutschlandweiten Breitenerhebung mit Emissionshandelsteilnehmern und Technologieanbietern in der Herstellung von Strom, Papier und Zement. Außerdem werden die Marktchancen, die sich aus dem CDM für diese Sektoren ergeben, betrachtet.