Post-Soviet Russian-Belarussian relationships

Autori

• Katja Yafimava

Parametri

• 144 pagine
• 6 ore di lettura

• Trasporti

Maggiori informazioni sul libro

Until the February 2004 gas crisis, when Gazprom halted gas flows through Belarus, the significance of Belarus as a gas transit route was largely overlooked, despite its role in transporting about 20% of Russia’s gas exports to Europe. This crisis highlighted the vulnerability of European gas supplies and underscored the need to reassess Belarus's role in energy transit. The relationship between Russia and Belarus, once amicable, has deteriorated, raising questions about future developments. The text examines how the reliability of Belarusian gas transit routes is affected by the dynamics of Russian-Belarusian integration and whether Belarus can navigate the new commercial landscape following the failed political union. It forecasts a decline in Belarusian welfare as Russia raises domestic gas prices by 20% annually, aligning with its energy strategy and WTO obligations. This trend makes Belarus's independent stance toward Gazprom increasingly untenable. To stabilize gas prices, Belarus may need to negotiate a joint venture with Gazprom for operating its transit network. However, even such a partnership would not resolve the fundamental issue of transit reliability, which is rooted in Belarus's weak economy. Without significant reforms aimed at gas conservation, Belarus risks unauthorized gas withdrawals and non-payments, further jeopardizing transit reliability.

Lingua: Inglese

Pubblicato: 2007

(In brossura)