Long-term energy demand in the German residential sector

Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia

Autori

• Rainer Elsland

Parametri

• 338 pagine
• 12 ore di lettura

• Libri di testo
• Libri di testo universitari

Maggiori informazioni sul libro

This thesis deals with the topic of how technological knowledge declines over time and the resulting limitations of techno-economic energy demand models in anticipating future demand for energy in the long-term. Since this is a principle limitation of ex ante analyses, this deficiency has been discussed for some time, but so far no methodological solution has been developed. The study is the first to develop a concept that draws on a broad methodological basis from different scientific disciplines (energy modelling and innovation economics) to address this limitation. Applying the concept developed to a practical question – energy scenarios for the German household sector until 2050 – shows that integrating the decline in technological knowledge into answering it leads to interesting new insights.

Lingua: Inglese

Pubblicato: 2016