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Exploring individual decision-making under uncertainty, this work delves into the base-rate fallacy and the cognitive biases that influence judgment. It conceptualizes various strategies for tackling base-rate problems and examines how different modes of thought and problem framing affect stochastic thinking in both students and experts. Additionally, it presents a framework for understanding the processes and structures involved in human information processing, shedding light on the complexities of decision-making in uncertain environments.
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Cognitive Strategies in Stochastic Thinking, Roland W. Scholz
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- 2012
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