Philip E. Tetlock Libri

The intelligence failures surrounding the Iraq invasion highlight the urgent need for standards in evaluating expert opinion. This book addresses that gap by exploring what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and examining why experts often miss the mark. The author discusses whether the complexity of the world hinders our ability to understand political phenomena and make accurate predictions. He compares expert forecasts to those made by well-informed laypeople and simple trend extrapolations. Analyzing different thinking styles, he uses Isaiah Berlin's fox and hedgehog prototypes to argue that the fox—who draws from diverse traditions and adapts to change—outperforms the hedgehog, who relies on a singular perspective and rigid solutions. The author also highlights a troubling inverse relationship between indicators of good judgment and the qualities valued by the media in pundits, such as ideological fervor. The book is clearly written and thoroughly researched, filling a significant void in the literature on expert evaluation. It will resonate across academic disciplines and with corporations aiming to establish criteria for assessing expert decision-making.

The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods.

Эта книга предлагает инновационные идеи от ведущих психологов, нейробиологов и философов, которые радикально увеличивают наше понимание человеческого мышления. Темы, рассматриваемые в книге, могут удивить многих, но в то же время будут непонятны для других. Она содержит термины и концепции, которые могут значительно изменить многие представления о мышлении. Это новое знание решает множество старых загадок и открывает целостный взгляд на все возможности мышления внутри нас.